Editor’s note: Below are this week’s bracket projections from Andy Bottoms, the #1 bracketologist in the world, according to Bracket Matrix.
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Updated as of 3:30 EST:
A few minor adjustments following the first three championship games of the day.
- Kentucky and Texas A&M flip-flopped seed lines after an exciting SEC Title game.
- Saint Joe’s is up to a seven seed after knocking off VCU in the A-10. Wisconsin fell to the eight line, as I think their early season struggles (and the associated bad losses) won’t be completely ignored.
- Unrelated to the championships, I have swapped out Syracuse for South Carolina as the last team in. The Gamecocks played just two games against the Top 50 and have just one win against potential at-large teams. They also have three ugly losses and a woeful non-con strength of schedule. As for the Orange, I think it ends up mattering that Boeheim was gone for their three worst losses (not saying I agree with it), and it’s notable that three of their five best wins came in road or neutral games.
Final update to come following the Big Ten and AAC games.
The #1 seeds
Kansas is officially locked in as the top overall seed after winning the Big 12 Tournament. That might be the only thing I’m certain of at this stage.
If Michigan State wins the Big Ten Tournament today, they can lock up a top seed. I’m not sure there’s anyone playing as well as the Spartans right now, which comes as a shock to no one.
Despite a .500 record against the Top 50, I am giving North Carolina the nod in the East. The Heels won the ACC regular season and tournament title and look to be finally fulfilling their lofty pre-season expectations.
For the final top seed, I’m going with Oregon for now, although it’s close between the Ducks and Virginia. Like Kansas and North Carolina, the Ducks won the regular season and tournament titles in the Pac-12 and have racked up a gaudy 20 Top 100 wins in the process. They do have a pair of sub-100 losses, but early season injuries were a factor there.
As for Virginia, they have plenty of top-end victories, but they also have a losing road record and four losses to teams that won’t be in the field.
The bubble
Just one potential bid thief remains, which means bubble teams across the country will be rooting against Memphis in the AAC Championship this afternoon.
More on the last four in and first four out below, but there is very little distinction between the teams at the bottom of the at-large list. Who makes it will tell us a lot about what this year’s committee valued.
The bracket
Here are my projections through the games from March 12. I’ll be making one more update this afternoon before the bracket is announced.
I’ve also listed my last four in and first four out along with my reasoning for those selections.
| SOUTH (LOUISVILLE) | MIDWEST (CHICAGO) | |
| St. Louis – March 18/20 | Des Moines – March 17/19 | |
| 1) Michigan St. | 1) Kansas | |
| 16) F. Dickinson / FL Gulf Coast | 16) Holy Cross / Southern | |
| 8) Colorado |
8) Connecticut | |
| 9) Butler | 9) USC | |
| Spokane – March 18/20 | Des Moines – March 17/19 | |
| 5) Iowa St. |
5) California | |
| 12) Chattanooga | 12) Yale |
|
| 4) Duke | 4) Indiana | |
| 13) Stephen F. Austin | 13) Iona | |
| St. Louis – March 18/20 | Providence – March 17/19 | |
| 6) Arizona | 6) Texas | |
| 11) Arkansas-Little Rock | 11) Monmouth / Temple | |
| 3) Xavier | 3) Miami (FL) | |
| 14) Fresno St. | 14) Buffalo | |
| Oklahoma City – March 18/20 | Brooklyn – March 18/20 | |
| 7) Saint Joseph’s | 7) Dayton | |
| 10) Pittsburgh | 10) Gonzaga | |
| 2) Oklahoma | 2) Villanova | |
| 15) Weber St. |
15) Green Bay | |
| WEST (ANAHEIM) | EAST (PHILADELPHIA) | |
| Spokane – March 18/20 | Raleigh – March 17/19 | |
| 1) Oregon | 1) North Carolina | |
| 16) Austin Peay | 16) Hampton | |
| 8) Wisconsin | 8) Texas Tech | |
| 9) Cincinnati | 9) Oregon St. | |
| Denver – March 17/19 | Oklahoma City – March 18/20 | |
| 5) Seton Hall | 5) Maryland | |
| 12) South Dakota St. | 12) Northern Iowa | |
| 4) Purdue | 4) Texas A&M | |
| 13) Stony Brook | 13) UNC-Wilmington | |
| Brooklyn – March 18/20 | Denver – March 17/19 | |
| 6) Baylor | 6) Notre Dame | |
| 11) Saint Mary’s / Syracuse |
11) St. Bonaventure | |
| 3) Kentucky | 3) Utah | |
| 14) Middle Tennessee | 14) Hawaii | |
| Raleigh – March 17/19 | Providence – March 17/19 | |
| 7) Providence | 7) Iowa | |
| 10) Wichita St. | 10) VCU | |
| 2) Virginia | 2) West Virginia | |
| 15) Cal St. Bakersfield | 15) UNC-Asheville |
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Last Four In
Monmouth
The Hawks are hoping that aggressive scheduling, a strong performance in the non-conference, and 13 road wins will help offset three sub-200 losses.
Saint Mary’s
In contrast to Monmouth, the Gaels didn’t really challenge themselves in the non-conference, losing their only true road game at Cal. Still, they have six Top 100 wins, a regular season sweep of Gonzaga, a winning road record, and solid Pomeroy numbers, which hopefully offset a not-so-great strength of schedule.
Temple
The Owls accomplished very little against a tough non-conference schedule, finishing just 6-6. In AAC play though, they finished 5-1 against SMU, Cincinnati, and Connecticut, which feels like enough to land them in the field.
Syracuse
The Orange are the team I have struggled with the most. On the one hand, they have a solid quartet of wins (St. Bonaventure, Texas A&M on a neutral court, at Duke, and Notre Dame). On the other, they are three games under .500 against the Top 150 and have a 3-8 road record. Throw in the Boeheim suspension and this is a tough one to sort out.
First Four Out
South Carolina
If there’s a somewhat surprising team to miss the cut, I think it’s South Carolina. The Gamecocks have a horrific non-con strength of schedule and just one Top 50 win. They do have an 8-5 mark against the Top 100 and 13 wins over the Top 150.
Michigan
Following a loss to Purdue on Saturday, times are tense in Ann Arbor. They have four great wins but are just 4-12 against the Top 100. While they don’t have a bad loss, a low total of quality wins and the fact that 11 of their 12 losses have come by at least nine points with 10 by double digits. The other concern is the non-conference strength of schedule, which ranks around 190th. Outside of a win over Texas, the best non-con victories came against North Carolina State and Elon.
San Diego State
The Aztecs are another regular season champ that came up short in tournament play. They have a great win over Cal but are just 3-7 against the Top 100. Losses to Grand Canyon and Boise State at home aren’t ideal, and a sub-300 loss to San Diego in a game played at Petco Park is another black eye. SDSU comfortably won the Mountain West, but in a down year that doesn’t carry quite as much weight.
Vanderbilt
Vandy does boast home wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M as well as a sweep of Florida, and their KenPom numbers are solid. In the end they are just 9-13 against the Top 150 and accomplished very little in the non-conference. They also finished 3-9 in true road games, which combined with other factors make them a long shot.
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Here is how the bids broke down by conference:
Big 12 (7): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas*, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Pac-12 (7): Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon*, Oregon State, USC, Utah
ACC (7): Duke, North Carolina*, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia
Big Ten (6): Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big East (5): Butler, Providence, Seton Hall*, Villanova, Xavier
Atlantic 10 (4): Dayton, Saint Joseph’s*, St. Bonaventure, VCU
American (3): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Temple
SEC (2): Kentucky*, Texas A&M
MAAC (2): Iona*, Monmouth
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa*, Wichita State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s
America East: Stony Brook*
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast*
Big Sky: Weber State*
Big South: UNC-Asheville*
Big West: Hawaii*
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington*
Conference USA: Middle Tennessee*
Horizon: Green Bay*
Ivy: Yale*
MAC: Buffalo*
MEAC: Hampton*
Mountain West: Fresno State*
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson*
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay*
Patriot: Holy Cross*
Southern: Chattanooga*
Southland: Stephen F. Austin*
Summit: South Dakota State*
Sun Belt: AR-Little Rock*
SWAC: Southern*
WAC: Cal St. Bakersfield*
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Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.
team-_ play hard,smart,and leave it on the floor!
Coaches-be aware and don’t save your time-outs for another game! Our young players need guidance in the game! Coaches, COACH!!!!
I think Michigan is in..