Bracketology by Andy Bottoms

Editor’s note: For years, our very own Andy Bottoms has been projecting the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Why should you pay attention to Andy? Because according to Bracket Matrix, he is still the #1 ranked bracketologist in the world. He is also the host of podcast Bracketology.fm.

Below is Andy’s final set of projections for 2017. 

*****

Below are my final projections for the field. Thanks for following along this week!

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The bracket

Here are my projections through all games on March 12.

I’ve also listed my last four in and first five out as usual, but my thoughts on those teams can all be found within the latest edition of Bracket Watch.

EAST (NEW YORK)		MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)
Buffalo – March 16/18		Tulsa – March 17/19
1) Villanova		1) Kansas
16) UC Davis / NC Central		16) Mount St. Mary’s / New Orleans
8) Virginia Tech		8) Arkansas
9) South Carolina		9) Dayton
Buffalo – March 16/18		Milwaukee – March 16/18
5) Virginia		5) SMU
12) UNC-Wilmington		12) Vermont
4) West Virginia		4) Notre Dame
13) Princeton		13) Bucknell
Indianapolis – March 17/19		Sacramento – March 17/19
6) Wisconsin		6) Minnesota
11) Wake Forest / Providence		11) Rhode Island
3) Louisville		3) UCLA
14) Northern Kentucky		14) Florida Gulf Coast
Sacramento – March 17/19		Greenville – March 17/19
7) Miami (FL)		7) Saint Mary’s
10) Michigan St.		10) Vanderbilt
2) Oregon		2) Duke
15) North Dakota		15) Texas Southern
SOUTH (MEMPHIS)		WEST (SAN JOSE)
Greenville – March 17/19		Salt Lake City – March 16/18
1) North Carolina		1) Gonzaga
16) Jacksonville St.		16) South Dakota St.
8) Northwestern		8) Wichita St.
9) Oklahoma St.		9) Marquette
Milwaukee – March 16/18		Orlando – March 16/18
5) Purdue		5) Iowa St.
12) Kansas St. / USC		12) Nevada
4) Butler		4) Florida
13) East Tennessee St.		13) Winthrop
Tulsa – March 17/19		Orlando – March 16/18
6) Cincinnati		6) Michigan
11) Seton Hall		11) Xavier
3) Baylor		3) Florida St.
14) Iona		14) New Mexico St.
Indianapolis – March 17/19		Salt Lake City – March 16/18
7) Creighton		7) Maryland
10) Middle Tennessee		10) VCU
2) Kentucky		2) Arizona
15) Kent St.		15) Troy

—————————————————————————————————————

Note: I broke down the bubble teams in more detail in the latest Bracket Watch.

Last Four In

Wake Forest

USC

Kansas State

Rhode Island

First Five Out

Syracuse

Illinois State

Iowa

Illinois

California

*******

Here is how the bids broke down by conference:

ACC (9): Duke*, Florida State, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big Ten (7): Maryland, Michigan*, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big East (7): Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova*, Xavier

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State*, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky*, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Pac-12 (4): Arizona*, Oregon, UCLA, USC

Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton, Rhode Island*, VCU

American (2): Cincinnati, SMU*

West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s

America East: Vermont*

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast*

Big Sky: North Dakota*

Big South: Winthrop*

Big West: UC Davis*

Colonial: UNC-Wilmington*

Conference USA: Middle Tennessee*

Horizon: Northern Kentucky*

Ivy: Princeton*

MAAC: Iona*

MAC: Kent State*

MEAC: NC Central*

Missouri Valley: Wichita State*

Mountain West: Nevada*

Northeast: Mount St. Mary’s*

Ohio Valley: Jacksonville St.*

Patriot: Bucknell*

Southern: East Tennessee St.*

Southland: New Orleans*

Summit: South Dakota St.*

Sun Belt: Troy*

SWAC: Texas Southern*

WAC: New Mexico State*

* – Denotes team has earned automatic bid

**********

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

Editor’s note: For years, our very own Andy Bottoms has been projecting the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Why should you pay attention to Andy? Because according to Bracket Matrix, he is still the #1 ranked bracketologist in the world. He is also the host of podcast Bracketology.fm.

Below is Andy’s latest set of projections for 2017. Expect a final update before the bracket is revealed.

*****

Selection Sunday is here, and there are a few major debates to be had today – both by the selection committee and within my head.

The first is whether Duke’s run through the ACC Tournament is enough to earn a one seed, and the second is whether Syracuse should be in the field. A Rhode Island win in the A-10 Final might answer the second one for us, as the Rams would move off the bubble and into the field.

I’m leaving Duke on the two line for now, but their case is certainly compelling given the high end wins as well as the injuries that impacted them throughout the season.

Over the remainder of the day, I’ll continue scrubbing through the seed list and second-guessing pretty much everything, so look for another update before the field is revealed.

On this week’s Bracketology.FM podcast, I previewed all of the remaining conference tournaments with my guests Jordan Majewski and Raphielle Johnson. Both offered great insight, and it’s worth a listen as one of the best weeks of the college basketball season rolls along.

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The bracket

Here are my projections through the games from March 11.

I’ve also listed my last four in and first five out as usual, but my thoughts on those teams can all be found within the latest edition of Bracket Watch.

EAST (NEW YORK)		MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)
Buffalo – March 16/18		Tulsa – March 17/19
1) Villanova		1) Kansas
16) UC Davis / NC Central		16) Mount St. Mary’s / Texas St.
8) Miami (FL)		8) Arkansas
9) South Carolina		9) Dayton
Buffalo – March 16/18		Milwaukee – March 16/18
5) Virginia		5) Cincinnati
12) UNC-Wilmington		12) Vermont
4) West Virginia		4) Notre Dame
13) Princeton		13) Bucknell
Indianapolis – March 17/19		Sacramento – March 17/19
6) Wisconsin		6) Minnesota
11) Wake Forest / USC		11) Providence
3) Louisville		3) UCLA
14) Northern Kentucky		14) Florida Gulf Coast
Sacramento – March 17/19		Greenville – March 17/19
7) Virginia Tech		7) Saint Mary’s
10) Seton Hall		10) Vanderbilt
2) Oregon		2) Duke
15) North Dakota		15) Texas Southern
SOUTH (MEMPHIS)		WEST (SAN JOSE)
Greenville – March 17/19		Salt Lake City – March 16/18
1) North Carolina		1) Gonzaga
16) New Orleans		16) Jacksonville St.
8) Northwestern		8) Wichita St.
9) Oklahoma St.		9) VCU
Milwaukee – March 16/18		Orlando – March 16/18
5) Purdue		5) Iowa St.
12) Kansas St. / Rhode Island		12) Nevada
4) Butler		4) Florida
13) East Tennessee St.		13) Winthrop
Tulsa – March 17/19		Orlando – March 16/18
6) SMU		6) Creighton
11) Xavier		11) Michigan St.
3) Baylor		3) Florida St.
14) Iona		14) New Mexico St.
Indianapolis – March 17/19		Salt Lake City – March 16/18
7) Michigan		7) Maryland
10) Middle Tennessee		10) Marquette
2) Kentucky		2) Arizona
15) Kent St.		15) Jacksonville St.

—————————————————————————————————————

Note: I broke down the bubble teams in more detail in the latest Bracket Watch.

Last Four In

Wake Forest

USC

Kansas State

Rhode Island

First Five Out

Syracuse

Illinois State

Iowa

Illinois

California

*******

Here is how the bids broke down by conference:

ACC (9): Duke*, Florida State, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big Ten (7): Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big East (7): Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova*, Xavier

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State*, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Pac-12 (4): Arizona*, Oregon, UCLA, USC

Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton, Rhode Island, VCU

American (2): Cincinnati, SMU

West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s

America East: Vermont*

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast*

Big Sky: North Dakota*

Big South: Winthrop*

Big West: UC Davis*

Colonial: UNC-Wilmington*

Conference USA: Middle Tennessee*

Horizon: Northern Kentucky*

Ivy: Princeton

MAAC: Iona*

MAC: Kent State*

MEAC: NC Central*

Missouri Valley: Wichita State*

Mountain West: Nevada*

Northeast: Mount St. Mary’s*

Ohio Valley: Jacksonville St.*

Patriot: Bucknell*

Southern: East Tennessee St.*

Southland: New Orleans*

Summit: South Dakota St.*

Sun Belt: Texas State

SWAC: Texas Southern*

WAC: New Mexico State*

* – Denotes team has earned automatic bid

**********

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

Editor’s note: For years, our very own Andy Bottoms has been projecting the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Why should you pay attention to Andy? Because according to Bracket Matrix, he is still the #1 ranked bracketologist in the world. He is also the host of podcast Bracketology.fm.

Below is Andy’s latest set of projections for 2017. Expect daily updates between now and Selection Sunday.

*****

No automatic bids were handed out on Friday, but the bubble is really starting to thin out.

California, Georgia, Houston, Indiana, Ole Miss, and TCU all lost to essentially eliminate themselves from at-large contention after Illinois and Iowa did the same on Thursday.

Kansas State missed out on a chance to solidify their bid, while Vanderbilt picked up its third win over Florida to gain some breathing room. Rhode Island was one of the only bubble teams to win, although they won’t get a crack at Dayton and another Top 30 win after the Flyers got bounced by Davidson.

There are still potential bid thieves in Conference USA (Marshall), American (Connecticut and Central Florida), Atlantic 10 (Davidson and Richmond), and the SEC (Alabama), but otherwise it feels like two of this group will wind up left out: Providence, Wake Forest, USC, Kansas State, Rhode Island, Syracuse, and Illinois State. Maybe Cal, Illinois, and Iowa still have some life, but those seem unlikely.

On this week’s Bracketology.FM podcast, I previewed all of the remaining conference tournaments with my guests Jordan Majewski and Raphielle Johnson. Both offered great insight, and it’s worth a listen as one of the best weeks of the college basketball season rolls along.

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The bracket

Here are my projections through the games from March 10.

I’ve also listed my last four in and first five out as usual, but my thoughts on those teams can all be found within the latest edition of Bracket Watch.

EAST (NEW YORK)		MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)
Buffalo – March 16/18		Tulsa – March 17/19
1) Villanova		1) Kansas
16) New Orleans / NC Central		16) North Dakota
8) Miami (FL)		8) Northwestern
9) South Carolina		9) Seton Hall
Buffalo – March 16/18		Milwaukee – March 16/18
5) Cincinnati		5) Minnesota
12) UNC-Wilmington		12) Kansas St. / Rhode Island
4) West Virginia		4) Notre Dame
13) Vermont		13) East Tennessee St.
Sacramento – March 17/19		Salt Lake City – March 16/18
6) Wisconsin		6) Iowa St.
11) Providence		11) Xavier
3) UCLA		3) Arizona
14) Bucknell		14) Iona
Greenville – March 17/19		Indianapolis – March 17/19
7) Maryland		7) Michigan
10) VCU		10) Middle Tennessee
2) Duke		2) Louisville
15) Texas Southern		15) Northern Kentucky
SOUTH (MEMPHIS)		WEST (SAN JOSE)
Greenville – March 17/19		Salt Lake City – March 16/18
1) North Carolina		1) Gonzaga
16) Mount St. Mary’s / S. Dakota St.		16) Jacksonville St.
8) Arkansas		8) Dayton
9) Wichita St.		9) Oklahoma St.
Milwaukee – March 16/18		Orlando – March 16/18
5) Purdue		5) Virginia
12) UT-Arlington		12) Nevada
4) Butler		4) Florida
13) Princeton		13) Akron
Tulsa – March 17/19		Orlando – March 16/18
6) SMU		6) Creighton
11) Wake Forest / USC		11) Vanderbilt
3) Baylor		3) Florida St.
14) Winthrop		14) Florida Gulf Coast
Indianapolis – March 17/19		Sacramento – March 17/19
7) Virginia Tech		7) Saint Mary’s
10) Marquette		10) Michigan St.
2) Kentucky		2) Oregon
15) UC-Irvine		15) Cal St. Bakersfield

—————————————————————————————————————

Note: I broke down the bubble teams in more detail in the latest Bracket Watch.

Last Four In

Wake Forest

USC

Kansas State

Rhode Island

First Five Out

Syracuse

Illinois State

Iowa

Illinois

California

*******

Here is how the bids broke down by conference:

ACC (9): Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big Ten (7): Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big East (7): Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Pac-12 (4): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, USC

Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton, Rhode Island, VCU

American (2): Cincinnati, SMU

West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s

America East: Vermont

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast*

Big Sky: North Dakota

Big South: Winthrop*

Big West: UC-Irvine

Colonial: UNC-Wilmington*

Conference USA: Middle Tennessee

Horizon: Northern Kentucky*

Ivy: Princeton

MAAC: Iona*

MAC: Akron

MEAC: NC Central

Missouri Valley: Wichita State*

Mountain West: Nevada

Northeast: Mount St. Mary’s*

Ohio Valley: Jacksonville St.*

Patriot: Bucknell*

Southern: East Tennessee St.*

Southland: New Orleans

Summit: South Dakota St.*

Sun Belt: UT-Arlington

SWAC: Texas Southern

WAC: Cal State Bakersfield

* – Denotes team has earned automatic bid

**********

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

Editor’s note: For years, our very own Andy Bottoms has been projecting the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Why should you pay attention to Andy? Because according to Bracket Matrix, he is still the #1 ranked bracketologist in the world. He is also the host of podcast Bracketology.fm.

Below is Andy’s latest set of projections for 2017. Expect daily updates between now and Selection Sunday.

*****

No automatic bids were handed out on Thursday, but there was still plenty of action that impacted the bubble with Illinois and Iowa getting blown out, Kansas State and Xavier winning, and the debate on Syracuse raging on.

With that in mind, I looked at a few elements of Syracuse’s profile.

RPI

The highest RPI to receive an at-large was actually Syracuse last year, who was sitting at 72nd on Selection Sunday. That team had some additional considerations due to Jim Boeheim’s suspension, but even so, this year’s team currently sits close to 15 spots worse in the RPI.

Road/Neutral Wins

The Orange are currently just 2-11 in road and neutral games. According to a tweet from Jerry Palm, no team in at least the last 23 years has received an at-large with so few victories away from home.

Since 2009, six teams have received an at-large with two true road wins, but all of them had at least one neutral court victory as well. In addition, five of the six had two or fewer sub-100 losses (more on that in a minute), five of six had RPIs of 55 or better, and five of six had better non-conference strength of schedule numbers than Syracuse, who ranks right around the 200 mark this year.

Sub-100 losses

Syracuse has five losses to teams outside of the RPI Top 100. Since 2009, just three at-large teams had at least five such defeats. One of them was USC in 2011, who took the majority of their bad losses before Jio Fontan became eligible 10 games into the year. Another was Wisconsin last year, who came on strong late following a mid-season coaching change. In both of those cases, there was a relatively dramatic personnel change during the season, which could explain why those kinds of losses might carry less weight.

The third team was LSU in 2015, who had a similar non-con SOS but won eight true road games.

Total Losses

Since 2009, just five teams have earned at-large bids with 14 losses, and all five of those came in 2011. One of those was the USC team mentioned above. Three of the other four had non-con SOS numbers in the Top 75, three of those four had RPIs in the Top 50, three of the four had just one sub-100 loss, and all had more true road wins than Syracuse does this year.

Top 50 Wins

The Orange do boast six Top 50 wins, and ultimately Top 50 wins were a large factor in their inclusion last season. Since 2009, just one team with that many Top 50 wins has been left out, Colorado in 2011. The Buffs had a mid-60s RPI and just three sub-100 losses, but their non-con SOS was 331st, which gave the committee an easy reason to leave them out. Syracuse’s non-con SOS isn’t that bad, but other than a win over Monmouth, their best non-conference wins came against Eastern Michigan and Boston University.

Bottoms Line

At this point most of these factors would suggest Syracuse is out … but the thing that gives me pause is how far inside the cut line they were last season. Again, we don’t know how much Boeheim’s absence played into their case, so that doesn’t help. The Orange had much better non-conference wins over UConn and Texas A&M to go with a road win at Duke. Like this season, they struggled down the stretch and failed to win a game in the ACC Tournament.

So what does all that mean? I’m honestly not sure.

In a situation where none of the other profiles on the bubble are particularly impressive, I’m inclined to leave them in for now. But with teams like Cal and Rhode Island still playing, I’d also say there’s a reasonably good chance that someone bumps the Orange from the field.

On this week’s Bracketology.FM podcast, I previewed all of the remaining conference tournaments with my guests Jordan Majewski and Raphielle Johnson. Both offered great insight, and it’s worth a listen as one of the best weeks of the college basketball season rolls along.

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The bracket

Here are my projections through the games from March 9.

I’ve also listed my last four in and first four out as usual, but my thoughts on those teams can all be found within the latest edition of Bracket Watch.

EAST (NEW YORK)		MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)
Buffalo – March 16/18		Tulsa – March 17/19
1) Villanova		1) Kansas
16) New Orleans / NC Central		16) Jacksonville St. / Mount St. Mary’s
8) Michigan		8) South Carolina
9) Wichita St.		9) Northwestern
Orlando – March 16/18		Milwaukee – March 16/18
5) Virginia		5) Cincinnati
12) UNC-Wilmington		12) USC / Syracuse
4) Florida		4) Purdue
13) Vermont		13) East Tennessee St.
Salt Lake City – March 16/18		Orlando – March 16/18
6) Wisconsin		6) Iowa St.
11) Wake Forest		11) Xavier
3) Arizona		3) Florida St.
14) Akron		14) Florida Gulf Coast
Indianapolis – March 17/19		Sacramento – March 17/19
7) Creighton		7) Saint Mary’s
10) Michigan St.		10) Marquette
2) Louisville		2) UCLA
15) Iona		15) Texas Southern
SOUTH (MEMPHIS)		WEST (SAN JOSE)
Greenville – March 17/19		Salt Lake City – March 16/18
1) North Carolina		1) Gonzaga
16) North Dakota		16) South Dakota St.
8) Dayton		8) Arkansas
9) Oklahoma St.		9) Seton Hall
Milwaukee – March 16/18		Buffalo – March 16/18
5) Notre Dame		5) Minnesota
12) UT-Arlington		12) Nevada
4) Butler		4) West Virginia
13) Princeton		13) Winthrop
Tulsa – March 17/19		Greenville – March 17/19
6) Maryland		6) SMU
11) Middle Tennessee		11) Vanderbilt / Kansas St.
3) Baylor		3) Duke
14) Bucknell		14) Cal St. Bakersfield
Indianapolis – March 17/19		Sacramento – March 17/19
7) Virginia Tech		7) Miami (FL)
10) VCU		10) Providence
2) Kentucky		2) Oregon
15) Northern Kentucky		15) UC-Irvine

—————————————————————————————————————

Note: I broke down the bubble teams in more detail in the latest Bracket Watch.

Last Four In

Vanderbilt

Kansas State

USC

Syracuse

First Four Out

Rhode Island

Illinois State

California

Iowa

*******

Here is how the bids broke down by conference:

ACC (10): Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big Ten (7): Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big East (7): Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Pac-12 (4): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, USC

American (2): Cincinnati, SMU

Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, VCU

West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s

America East: Vermont

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast*

Big Sky: North Dakota

Big South: Winthrop*

Big West: UC-Irvine

Colonial: UNC-Wilmington*

Conference USA: Middle Tennessee

Horizon: Northern Kentucky*

Ivy: Princeton

MAAC: Iona*

MAC: Akron

MEAC: NC Central

Missouri Valley: Wichita State*

Mountain West: Nevada

Northeast: Mount St. Mary’s*

Ohio Valley: Jacksonville St.*

Patriot: Bucknell*

Southern: East Tennessee St.*

Southland: New Orleans

Summit: South Dakota St.*

Sun Belt: UT-Arlington

SWAC: Texas Southern

WAC: Cal State Bakersfield

* – Denotes team has earned automatic bid

**********

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

No automatic bids were earned on Thursday, but a full day of basketball produced a few more locks and a number of other impactful results.

This provides a snapshot into the current state of locks and bubble teams for each conference, and it will be updated throughout Championship Week.

Automatic Bids (12): Jacksonville State, Winthrop, Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast, UNC-Wilmington, East Tennessee St., Iona, Northern Kentucky, Mount St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, South Dakota State, Bucknell

ACC

Locks (8): Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Bubble Teams:

Syracuse (18-14) – I wrote quite a bit about the Orange in today’s bracket projections, but in short the Orange are hanging their hat on six Top 50 wins being enough to overshadow other elements of their profile that have historically led to exclusion.

Wake Forest (19-13) – The Demon Deacons improved their at-large profile dramatically over the past two weeks, but they came up short against Virginia Tech on Wednesday night. That loss leaves them at 3-9 against the RPI Top 50, but solid KenPom numbers and an impressive non-conference strength of schedule bolster their chances. I wouldn’t necessarily consider them a lock, but I think Wake is in good shape overall.

Big 12

Locks (5): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

Bubble Teams:

Kansas State (20-12) – Thursday’s game against Baylor was essentially a must-win for the Wildcats, and they came through with a critical victory. They now have three Top 25 wins but are just 6-10 against the Top 100, were recently blown out by 30 at Oklahoma, and have a less than impressive non-conference strength of schedule. K-State does boast strong KenPom numbers and would almost certainly be safe with a win over West Virginia in the semis.

TCU (18-14) – The Horned Frogs took advantage of Josh Jackson’s absence to spring the upset of Kansas and get back into the bubble conversation. As it stands, they are just 3-10 against the Top 50 and 4-11 against the Top 100 with a trio of sub-100 losses. If they can make it three wins in three days by knocking off Iowa State, things could start to get interesting for Jamie Dixon’s club.

Big East

Locks (4): Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Villanova

Bubble Teams:

Marquette (19-12) – A home win over Villanova carries some serious weight, which is great news given Marquette’s ugly non-conference strength of schedule. Even with Thursday’s loss to Seton Hall, the Golden Eagles have eight Top 50 wins (a number of them against injury-depleted foes), but they are just .500 against the Top 200. Ultimately I think they’ll be in, just aren’t quite a lock for me right now.

Providence (20-12) – The good news is the Friars have six Top 50 wins. The bad news is they’ve lost to St. John’s, DePaul, and Boston College, although eight Top 100 wins help to offset those blemishes. Similar to Marquette, I think the Friars are in.

Xavier (21-12) – I’m not sure there was a bigger win on Thursday than Xavier’s victory over Butler. The Musketeers’ RPI is decent no sub-100 losses, but a poor record since losing Edmond Sumner to injury had doubt creeping in. They now have four wins against the RPI Top 40 with a good non-conference strength of schedule. They may not be in lock status quite yet, but I feel good about Xavier’s chances at this point.

Big Ten

Locks (7): Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Bubble Teams:

Illinois (17-14) – Just when you thought Illinois was playing its way in, the Illini lost at Rutgers on Saturday and then got hammered by Michigan in their Big Ten Tournament opener. They have three Top 50 wins plus sweeps of Northwestern and Iowa, but they are just 12-14 against the Top 200 with two losses to Penn State and another at the hands of Rutgers. It’s tough to see the Illini making it after Thursday’s loss.

Indiana (18-14) – There is still work to do for the Hoosiers, but Thursday’s blowout of Iowa was the first step in what they need to be a deep Big Ten Tournament run. Wins over Kansas and North Carolina are terrific, though they came with a healthy OG Anunoby. Overall, Indiana does have nine Top 100 victories. IU has to knock off Wisconsin on Friday to remain in the picture.

Iowa (18-14) – Much like Illinois, the Hawkeyes had played their way onto the bubble, but they were basically run off the floor in the second half against Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. Five Top 50 wins will keep Iowa in the conversation, but a sub-.500 mark against the Top 200, including a trio of sub-100 losses, make their inclusion unlikely.

Pac-12

Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA

Bubble Teams:

California (21-11) – The Bears held on to beat Utah to earn a trip to the Pac-12 Semi-Finals where they will get another crack at Oregon, who they seemed destined to beat just a few weeks ago. Cal blew a late lead in that game, and as a result they still have just one win over an at-large caliber team, which came against fellow bubbler USC by a single point.

USC (24-9) – A pair of Top 20 wins over UCLA and SMU are fantastic, but there isn’t much else on their profile. They took care of business against Washington in their first Pac-12 Tournament game but came up short against UCLA in the Quarterfinals. For now I think they’re in, but a trip to Dayton is likely in the cards.

SEC

Locks (4): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina

Bubble Teams:

Georgia (18-13) – Selfishly I’d love to see J.J. Frazier get the Bulldogs to the tournament, but that seems like a long shot thanks to a 1-8 mark against the Top 50 and no wins over surefire at-large teams. They probably need to win the SEC Tournament at this point, but a win over Kentucky on Friday would make things interesting.

Mississippi (20-12) – The Rebels beat South Carolina at home on Saturday to get into the bubble conversation. At this point they have just two Top 50 wins and a 3-12 mark against the Top 100, but the lack of sub-100 losses works in their favor. Still, they need to get to the SEC Final to have any shot at an at-large.

Vanderbilt (18-14) – Vandy blew out Texas A&M to set up a matchup with Florida, who they’ve already beaten twice this year. They boast the nation’s toughest non-conference schedule, which coupled with five Top 40 wins gives them a compelling case. That said, a 20-point loss at Mizzou, as well as the 14 total losses are potential issues, but I find it hard to believe they’d be left out with another win over the Gators.

American

Locks (2): Cincinnati, SMU

Bubble Teams:

None

Atlantic-10

Locks (2): Dayton, VCU

Bubble Teams:

Rhode Island (21-9) – The Rams now boast a pair of Top 25 victories, but they are just 7-7 against the Top 100 with two sub-100 losses. They took care of business last week, and a win in the semis against Dayton would enhance their at-large profile. But first, they need to beat St. Bonaventure on Thursday.

Other

Locks (1): Saint Mary’s

Bubble Teams:

Illinois State (26-6) – The Redbirds finished 17-1 in the MVC, but they have just one Top 50 win and are 2-4 against the Top 100 after getting blown out by Wichita State in the Missouri Valley Championship. A sub-200 loss at Murray State certainly doesn’t help matters, and if I had to guess, I think they wind up getting left out.

Middle Tennessee (27-4) – If not for a loss at sub-200 UTEP, the Blue Raiders would be close to a lock thanks to a 4-1 mark against the Top 100 and a great non-conference strength of schedule. They finished C-USA play at 17-1 and get a rematch with UTEP in the Conference USA semis. If they can get to the conference finals, I give them a solid chance.

Nevada (26-6) – On paper the seven Top 100 wins look nice, but a sweep of Boise State accounts for their only victories over Top 70 teams. In the end I don’t think the resume is strong enough to get an at-large, but I suppose winning out until the MWC Finals could make things interesting.

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Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.