Andy Bottoms Bracket Projections for February 17: Jekyll and Hyde Edition

Before diving into this week’s projections, let’s take a look at some Jekyll and Hyde teams.

These squads all have some quality wins that would normally leave them feeling confident about their Selection Sunday fate … were it not for multiple head-scratching losses.

With a crop of bubble teams that seems to be looking worse with each passing week, these teams’ profiles haven’t reached First Four proportions yet, but they’d be wise to avoid any other landmines remaining on their schedule.

Providence

• The Good: The Friars have three Top 25 wins, six Top 50 wins, and a 10-5 mark against the RPI Top 100, including a neutral court victory over Notre Dame, a win at Butler, and a sweep of Georgetown.  They also boast impressive strength of schedule numbers thanks to a Top 20 non-con schedule.
• The Bad: Providence has three losses to teams outside the Top 140, including road losses against Marquette and Boston College and a 10-point home loss to Brown.
• The Remaining: at DePaul, at Villanova, Marquette, at Seton Hall, Butler.

Unless the Friars somehow lose all five of those games, it’s tough to envision a team with so many solid wins being left out. They’re much more likely to go 4-1, though, if you ask me.

Cincinnati

• The Good: UC is 3-1 against the RPI Top 50 thanks to a sweep of SMU and a December victory over San Diego State.  Throw in blowout wins over Temple and NC State and the Bearcats have five Top 50 victories to go with a Top 25 non-conference strength of schedule.
• The Bad: Five of Cincinnati’s eight losses have come against teams with little to no chance of making the Big Dance.  To some extent, you can forgive road losses at UConn and Memphis, and maybe even the double-OT loss at Nebraska, but I’m not sure that the same can be said of Saturday’s home loss to Tulane (albeit on a buzzer-beater) or losing at East Carolina.
• The Remaining: Xavier, at Houston, Central Florida, at Tulane, at Tulsa, Memphis.

Outside of the games against Xavier and Tulsa, there really aren’t chances to improve the resume down the stretch. Whether they win those two games or not, the Bearcats need to keep from stubbing their toes against one of the lesser opponents.

Mississippi

• The Good: The Rebels have three Top 50 victories, including a terrific road win at Arkansas and a neutral court win over the aforementioned Bearcats. Victories over fellow bubblers Texas A&M and Oregon don’t hurt either. Ole Miss is also 9-3 away from home this season and nearly knocked off Kentucky at Rupp Arena.
• The Bad: Mississippi opened the season with a home loss to Charleston Southern and also picked up sub-100 losses against TCU and Western Kentucky in non-conference play.
• The Remaining: at Mississippi St., Tennessee, Georgia, at LSU, at Alabama, Vanderbilt.

With five of six remaining games against teams not currently in the bubble discussion, there are some landmines here for the Rebels. That said, they had won six straight before losing a heartbreaker at home to Arkansas, so a complete collapse seems unlikely.

Xavier

• The Good: A sweep of Georgetown and a home win over Providence gives Xavier a trio of Top 25 wins. The Musketeers have eight Top 100 victories overall, including better-than-you-think non-conference wins against Murray State and Stephen F. Austin.
• The Bad: Xavier has three sub-100 losses (Creighton, at DePaul, at Auburn), which is ugly in and of itself. But throw in additional losses to UTEP, Long Beach State, and a now-struggling Seton Hall team, and you have six losses to squads that will need to win their conference tournaments to go dancing. A 4-8 mark away from home isn’t helping the cause either.
• The Remaining: at Cincinnati, Butler, at St. John’s, Villanova, at Creighton.

Outside of the season finale, there really isn’t a potential bad loss to be had here. But with so many ugly L’s already, the Muskies will need to pull off a couple wins in the next four games to avoid sweating out Selection Sunday.

LSU

• The Good: The Tigers boast four Top 50 wins, including a terrific road win at West Virginia, a home win over Georgia, and another solid road W at Ole Miss. In fact, four of LSU’s eight Top 100 victories have come in true road games. Like the aforementioned Rebels, the Tigers had a great chance to knock off Kentucky before getting shut down over the last few minutes.
• The Bad: It’s hard to believe that a team with enough talent to push Kentucky to the wall would lose to Auburn, Mississippi State, or Missouri, let alone all three, but that’s exactly what LSU has done. Throw in neutral court losses to Clemson and a fading Old Dominion squad, and things could get interesting if the Tigers falter down the stretch.
• The Remaining: at Texas A&M, Florida, at Auburn, Mississippi, Tennessee, at Arkansas.

For my money, LSU is the epitome of a Jekyll and Hyde team, so I could see them going 6-0 or 2-4 over the final six games.

Below are my projections through the games from February 16. I’ve also listed my last four in and first four out, along with my reasoning for those selections.

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Last Four In

Stanford

After dropping Sunday’s game at Colorado, the Cardinal have now lost four of their last five. Stanford has just two wins against the RPI Top 80, a road win at Texas that looked a lot better back in December, and a home victory over Wofford in November.

Stanford was swept by UCLA, which doesn’t help for bubble purposes, and they also have losses at Washington State and DePaul. The Cardinal need to take care of business with three winnable home games up next before a trip to the Arizona schools to close out the season.

North Carolina State

An outstanding road win at Louisville propelled the Wolfpack back into the field. That, coupled with a home victory over Duke, gives NC State a pair of wins that few teams can match.  However, losses to fellow bubblers Purdue and Miami don’t help the case, not to mention losses to Clemson and Wake.

The Wolfpack host Virginia Tech before hitting the road for three straight against North Carolina, Boston College, and Clemson.

Texas A&M

Not much has changed for the Aggies.  They still don’t have a Top 50 win or a sub-100 loss. A strong RPI, five Top 50 victories, and a winning mark away from home have them clinging to one of the final at-large bids.

The importance of the final six games is magnified for a team with a relatively weak profile like A&M’s, which makes this week’s home date with LSU critical since three of the following four games are on the road.

Purdue

The Boilermakers are another Jekyll and Hyde team. They have three terrible losses, including home defeats to North Florida and Gardner-Webb, but they’ve won eight of their last 10 games and are tied for second in the Big Ten. Purdue has three Top 50 wins and eight victories against the Top 100.

That being said, those bad losses have left Matt Painter’s squad with little margin for error, and the remaining schedule is unforgiving, with three of the next four coming on the road against Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan State.

First Four Out

Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes managed to avoid another terrible loss by escaping Boston College with a double-OT win on Monday. Even so, they are yet another Jekyll and Hyde squad with a road win at Duke, a 7-5 record against the Top 50, a 7-4 mark away from home, and four sub-100 losses.

Miami is right on the cut line entering the home stretch, which features can’t-lose games against Virginia Tech (twice) and Florida State, along with road trips to Louisville and Pittsburgh as well as a home date with UNC.

Tulsa

Getting blown out by UConn wasn’t the ideal way to follow up a double-digit loss to SMU. As it stands, the Golden Hurricane still have just one victory over the RPI Top 85 and a 7-6 mark against the Top 200.

Their next three games are all at home, and Tulsa can ill afford to slip up in any of them before closing the season at Memphis, home against Cincinnati, and at SMU.

Oregon

Saturday’s loss to UCLA snapped a four-game winning streak for the Ducks, who own a pair of Top 50 victories and a 6-6 record versus the Top 100.

The bad news is the Ducks are just 3-6 away from home and play three of their last five on the road. Those may not matter much if they can’t find a way to knock of Colorado and Utah at home this week.

Boise State

The Broncos suffered a crushing loss at Fresno State on Saturday which snapped an eight-game winning streak.  Two Top 30 wins are nice, but that makes four losses against teams outside of the at-large picture.

Outside of a trip to San Diego State at the end of the month, there really aren’t chances to pick up profile-enhancing wins, and Boise cannot afford a loss in any of the other five remaining games.

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Here is how the bids broke down by conference:

Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big 12 (7): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, West Virginia

ACC (6): Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Virginia

Big East (6): Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Xavier

SEC (6): Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Pac-12 (4): Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, Utah

American (3): Cincinnati, SMU, Temple

Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, VCU

Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita State

Mountain West (2): Colorado State, San Diego State

America East: Albany

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast

Big Sky: Eastern Washington

Big South: High Point

Big West: UC Davis

Colonial: William & Mary

Conference USA: Louisiana Tech

Horizon: Valparaiso

Ivy: Harvard

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Bowling Green

MEAC: North Carolina Central

Northeast: St. Francis (NY)

Ohio Valley: Murray State

Patriot: Bucknell

Southern: Wofford

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

Summit: South Dakota State

Sun Belt: Georgia Southern

SWAC: Texas Southern

WAC: New Mexico State

West Coast: Gonzaga

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