In today’s edition of Banner Morning:
• Indiana is favored over Louisville this Saturday.
• This metric may determine who wins the game.
• Indiana’s defense continues to show signs of growth.
• The FORUM Tip-Off Classic takes place this weekend.
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Welcome to another edition of Banner Morning. We’re now just two days away from Indiana versus Louisville.
In team news …
This Saturday’s game against Louisville tips at 2:30 Eastern and will be televised on Fox. KenPom currently projects a 77-71 victory for IU, with a 74% chance of victory for the Hoosiers.
One important statistical area to watch for, as Alex Bozich pointed on on this week’s edition of Podcast on the Brink, is can Louisville get to the free throw line?
The Cardinals are heavily reliant on free throws to generate offense. Almost 30 percent of their points come on free throws, which is the 2nd-highest in the nation. And Louisville is currently first in the nation in Free Throw Rate, a measure of how often a team generates free throw attempts.
On the Indiana side, the Hoosiers are pretty good at limiting opponent free throw attempts. The Hoosiers are in the top 3rd in the country in not allowing opponents to get to the line.
If the Hoosiers can limit Louisville’s free throw attempts, it will make scoring extremely difficult on the visiting Cardinals. But if Louisville can generate their usual amount of free throws, not only will they be able to score efficiently and comfortably, but it’s likely Juwan will be one of the culprits, as his fouls committed per 40 minutes metric is 3rd highest on the team.
In other statistical analysis …
Speaking of Bozich, in his recent 5 Takeaways article he highlighted the continued improvement this IU program is making on the defensive end of the court.
As Bozich explains, “Over nine games, the Hoosiers have surrendered more than a point per possession just once and are ranked in the top 20 in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating. Through nine games last season, six opponents scored more than a point per possession against Indiana.”
Even more impressive than that is how often Indiana is holding its opponents to one of their worst offensive outings of the season.
- Montana State, Marquette, and Penn State all had their least efficient offensive outings against IU.
- Chicago State, Arkansas, and Duke had their second-worst offensive outings against IU.
So Indiana’s defense certainly appears ready to compete in this year’s rough-and-tumble Big Ten.
In recruiting news …
The two matchups of particular interest to IU fans are the nightcaps:
- Cathedral and Armaan Franklin take on Zionsville at 6:40.
- And in the headliner, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Center Grove take on Keion Brooks and La Lumiere at 8:30.
For the links mentioned in this edition of Banner Morning, visit assemblycall.com. And join us at our website tonight at 9 Eastern for this week’s live broadcast of Assembly Call Radio.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a brand new edition of Banner Morning. Until then, keep your elbows in and your eyes on the rim, and go Hoosiers.